The world has been shaken by the waves of Covid-19 pandemic and despite the immunization program being carried out at a frantic pace, the fear of relapse does lurk on the horizon.
I would try to answer the question in two parts as we need to understand the flight of money(China) and avoidance of the market(India)
Multiple reasons why money is exiting the Chinese market
- Crackdown on the edtech/tech sector for storing data domestically and having a stronghold on the companies of the CCP(Chinese Communist Party)
- Spread of Novel Covid-19 Virus (Delta Version) in the majority of the provinces
- The U.S. doesn’t want American investors to buy Chinese stocks.
- The crackdown has made a lot of Chinese stocks look cheap which can correct further if the CCP crackdown continues
Multiple Reasons why money is exiting China may not enter India
Since the lows of April 2020, the markets have risen by almost 100%
The rise in the index is in no way an indicator of earnings or reversal of capex trends for many companies who were impacted by Covid-19 restriction and lockdown in Wave-1 & Wave-2.
NSE Nifty 50 Index will fall to 15,500 by the end of June 2022, 5% lower than the value of August 6th, 2021.
UBS Group AG
There is a possibility why this might happen:
- Possibility of a third wave that can disrupt all sectors
- Missing of Earnings for companies in the coming quarters. In this quarter, 58% of the companies have missed analyst estimates. This trend has led to earnings exuberance being continuously revised over the decade
- The exit of FII(Foreign Institutional Investors) owing to better pricing in other markets, valuations in the Indian Market, and recovery uncertainty. FIIs have pulled out $1.7 billion from local shares in July paring their net purchases for the year
- Increase in the interest rates by the US Federal Reserve providing investors better returns for lower uncertainty
- Rich valuations are a deterrent for new investors to put in money. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is trading at a multiple higher than 13 times.
Hence, it is better to sit on money as the Index is climbing and wait for opportunities to buy stocks that are resilient in the post-Covid era and can grow organically.
Hope you find this helpful
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- Money fleeing China stocks may snub Indian markets due to these 3 reasons
- Money fleeing China may avoid Indian stocks as they’ve become pricey, UBS says