India is on a growth trajectory that will make it the fastest growing economy for many years to come.
This growth will be based on three sectors considering the global de-growth and recession like situation.
The reason for Indian Growth story is owing to the huge domestic populace that will cushion any headwinds.
Despite IT/ITeS exports being one of the major contributor to the Indian GDP – it is going to be subdued in 2023 and possibly for mid-2024.
Owing to this, the focus shift to the top three sectors that will fund growth:
Infrastructure
- With the government spending huge amount on connecting cities through road, air and waterways – companies linked to them will benefit a lot
- Government Companies: NBCC
- Private Companies: L&T, DBL, Ashok Buildcon, IRB, HCC, IRCON, KEC
- Other Companies: DLF, NCC, Lodha, Kalpataru
FMCG
- Spending for basic & discretionary needs will boost the revenues of companies catering to the space
- FMCG Companies: HUL, Dabur, Marico, Emami, Colgate, Pratap Foods, Varun Beverages
- QSR Players: Jubiliant Foods, Tata Coffee, Westlife Food, Sapphire Foods
Finance
- As spending is set to pickup with the festival season starting from October 2023 – multiple companies are set to benefit from this
- Personal Finance Linked Companies: Bajaj Finance, Poonawala Finance, HDB, Indiabulls, L&T Finance, Muthoot Finance, Cholamandalam Finance
- Fintech Companies: Paytm, PB Fintech, Infibeam Avenues
- Regulated Lenders: HDFC Bank, IDFC First Bank, LIC HFL, Repco Finance, etc.
Despite having said that, there are headwinds that these sectors will have to reconcile with
- Crude Oil prices beyond US $80 for prolonged period
- Possibility of Massive layoffs in the IT-services space
- Increased borrowing cost for NBFCs/Banks leading to high interest lending
- Fluctuation in the commodity market leading to high input costs for FMCG
- Uncertain political outcome (domestically/internationally)
Despite all the possible headwinds, India has lot of things going for it that cushions the downsides.
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Hope this helps
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