The stock market in India has given exceptional returns since 2020.
This upturn was challenged in the past owing to
- Covid-19 and Lockdowns
- Russia-Ukraine War
- Rise in Crude Oil prices
- Rise in Commodity prices
- Supply Chain Disruption
- Weak Global Demand
- High Inflation and
- Israel-Hamas War
Despite this, the Indian economy has been resilient and the reforms made have helped to grow the consumption, manufacturing, and entrepreneurial facets of the economy while keeping inflation below 7%.
The possible reelection of the Modi government with a majority will strengthen the confidence among investors who are looking to park money in Emerging Markets, China+1 via FPI and FDI routes.
This though can come under threat due to the recent developments in the Middle East.
On the back of Israel’s attack on Iranian interests in Syria – Iran has launched missiles and drones towards Israel on April 13-14, 2024.
This development along with the existing geopolitical tensions can lead to the following in the short-term
- Rise in Gold Prices
- Rise in Crude Oil above USD $ 100
- Panic Selling in the markets around the world (precursor for the same – Bitcoin falls by 7%)
- Volatility in the stock markets (as other players will get involved in the sabre rattling)
- Rise in cost of goods as the logistics chain will be susceptible to attacks
What should an investor do?
- Sit on cash and deploy money after meaningful correction
- Do not sell your investments under any influence like ‘expert’ advice or tips
- Buy quality companies that have sustained their performance for the past decade and still growing
- Use every opportunity of dip to nibble on stocks or mutual fund units
Hope this helps
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God Bless!
Further Reading:
- Iran-Israel possible war may push crude to above $100 per barrel; can trigger panic selling, volatility in equity markets
- https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-breaks-expectations-iran-fears-asml-taiwan-semi/
- Markets flash early signs of risk from wider Mideast war as crypto prices sink after Iran launches wave of drones at Israel

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