What is the Theory of Change (ToC)?

Basic Understanding:

The Theory of Change is like a roadmap that shows how and why you expect certain actions or interventions to lead to your desired long-term goal or change, especially when solving complex societal problems.

Think of it as connecting the dots between what you do today and what change you want to see in the future, explaining all the steps and assumptions in between.

Example:

Problem: Many school children in a village are not completing their education.
Goal: Increase school graduation rates in the village by 50% in 5 years.

Theory of Change could look like this:

1. If we provide free school meals,
2. Then more children will come to school regularly.
3. If they attend periodically,
4. Then they are more likely to learn better.
5. If they learn better,
6. Then they will pass exams and move up a grade.
7. Eventually, more of them will complete school and graduate.

Each “if…then” step explains how activities (like free meals) are expected to bring about the long-term change (more graduates).

How NGOs & Social Enterprises Use Theory of Change:

Here are pointer-based uses:

• ✅ Problem clarity: Helps NGOs/social enterprises clearly define the core problem and its root causes.
• ✅ Backwards planning: Encourages them to start with the end goal (impact) and work backwards to decide what activities are needed.
• ✅ Assumption testing: Makes them identify and question assumptions (e.g., will meals actually improve attendance?).
• ✅ Measurement guide: Helps them decide what to measure at each stage (inputs, outputs, outcomes) to track progress.
• ✅ Better communication: Provides a simple way to explain their strategy to funders, governments, or partners.
• ✅ Adaptation tool: Allows for regular updates based on what’s working and what’s not, making the work more flexible and responsive.
• ✅ Collaboration aid: When working with other organisations, it helps align everyone on the same vision and approach.