Introduction
The global energy crisis is reshaping the economics of transportation fuels.
A new analysis by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) estimates that global biofuel production could increase from around 105 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2025 to 176 Mtoe by 2030, a rise of about 68%.
The increase is being driven partly by countries seeking alternatives to oil amid disruptions linked to the Gulf energy crisis.
Why Are Biofuels Gaining Attention?
Biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel can be blended with conventional petrol and diesel.
When crude oil prices rise or supplies become uncertain, domestically produced biofuels can become more attractive.
Countries including India, Brazil, China, Indonesia and the US, along with the European Union, have proposed or adopted higher blending mandates.
For countries heavily dependent on imported crude oil, biofuels can therefore serve two purposes: reduce fossil-fuel dependence and improve energy-security resilience.
But Where Will the Feedstock Come From?
This is where the story becomes complicated.
Much of today’s conventional biofuel production uses food and feed crops such as corn, sugarcane, palm oil and soy. If all the proposed mandates are implemented, the study estimates that biofuel feedstock production could require approximately 36 million additional hectares of land by 2030, roughly the size of Germany.
This creates potential competition between food, fuel and forests.
The Rise of Waste-Based Biofuels
One potential way forward is to shift from first-generation, crop-based biofuels towards waste and residue-based feedstocks.
Used cooking oil, agricultural residues, animal fats and other organic waste can be converted into fuels without directly competing with food crops to the same extent.
This is particularly relevant for fuels such as renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
What About India?
India is among the countries pushing higher biofuel blending as part of its energy-security strategy.
The International Energy Agency expects India to be one of the major contributors to global ethanol production growth through 2030.
For India, the opportunity extends beyond ethanol. Waste-based feedstocks, used cooking oil, agricultural residues and other biomass could become increasingly valuable as the country looks to reduce crude-oil imports.
The Bigger Question: Energy Security vs Food Security
The rapid expansion of biofuels highlights an important trade-off. Biofuels can provide an alternative to imported oil, but large-scale crop-based production can increase pressure on land, water, food prices and biodiversity.
Chatham House therefore argues that biofuels should be viewed as a targeted transitional tool rather than a permanent replacement for fossil fuels, while stronger sustainability safeguards are developed.
The long-term opportunity may therefore lie not simply in producing more biofuel, but in producing better biofuel, from waste, residues and sustainably sourced feedstocks.
Further Reading
- Reuters – Global biofuel output to jump nearly 70% by 2030
- Chatham House – The problem with biofuels
- IEA – Oil 2025
- Forest Stewardship Council
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